It goes without saying, DVDs/BlueRays.
I’ll be sad if DVD’s and Blu-ray’s go away.
I’m going to be bold. The internal combustion engine car.
There will be a tipping point where nobody wants to maintain the highly intricate manufacturing for them, and they will stop very quickly. Electric motors are the future and the transition is accelerating. We’re currently around 20% of new sales and I expect after 60-70% ICEs will just disappear from sale.
we still see a lot of 20-40yr old cars around, many daily driven. if we suddenly stop making ice cars today, its still taking a while for them to truly go away in practical terms.
Most countries will be raising taxes on fuel even more and in general it will become less available fast: gas stations, mechanics who know how to fix the ICE old timers etc. it will become a hobby thing (like old timers today already). Certain niches will keep ICE way longer (heavy construction vehicles etc) but it will suddenly become quite rare in 20 or 30 years to see a regular old ICE driven by a regular person doing regular things like commuting or so.
For heavy construction vehicles only three main factors need to align: normal replacement schedule, enough capacity for the heaviest day (which is quite predictable in many industries,) and the charging infrastructure.
The last one is a major hurdle and is holding back EVs on all levels already. In the US it is also the least likely to see improvement anytime soon
carburators arent a thing in my country for at least 30 years now but plenty of people around who still know how to work on them.
become quite rare in 20 or 30 years
yea thats what i meant. ICE won’t be going anywhere at all in 10 years, but about 30 yes i can see it
I don’t think that’s bold.
It’s already at 25% last month and 50+% in China.It’s only the timescale I’m unsure about.
A majority of Chinas EVs outside of Shenzhen are hybrids. Unless youre counting vespas, there’s way more electrics.
I think the EU has plans to stop the sale of ICEs in 10 years, so… that could start a snowball effect.
I believe this… But the USA being an exception
They are rolling coal in the wasteland while civilised people live in the clouds, jetsons style
Please be “ai”… Please be “ai”…
All of it, humanity will be wiped out in the Second Emu War, and birds don’t need phones.
Birds aren’t real
I feel like DVDs/Blurays already disappeared 10 years ago and are now making a comeback. Same for CDs. Streaming services don’t let you own anything, and if they pull something down, you’re SOL. Self hosting Plex and ripping my own disks has given me a level of freedom not possible with netflix et. al. Especially since DVDs are considered garbage to most people now, you can set up your own streaming service for you and your friends and family for cheap. No piracy necessary.
If anything I think DVDs and Blu-rays are going to rise. All across the media landscape people seem to be getting annoyed with the “own nothing” society we’re in. The thrift stores are full of thousands of DVDs for barely any cost. Last week I bought the Matrix 2 and 3 and Der Untergang in DVD for like 3 bucks. Way easier than figuring out in which streaming service to watch them and what OS and browser will let it play at HD resolution. Once “the youth” picks up on this like they did with CDs and digicams the DVD will be back.
Recently In bought a Blu-ray of Star Wars Andor because I love the series and want to support it, but Disney+ wouldn’t play beyond 480p on my setup. My trusty old PS3 plays it like a dream and the resulting image is ridiculously sharp compared to streaming.
CDs, cassettes, and vinyl are already booming or in the rise again. And the streaming audio landscape is arguably way nicer than the streaming video lanschape. In photography there’s also a wave of film and early digital camera hype.
I hope that the next 10 years brings the resurgence of the physical medium and ownership. And if not that, the resurgence of the high seas.
I mean flash drives, SD card and others are just as good as DVDs these days and are getting cheaper and cheaper by the day so I cannot really see why people would want DVDs and Blue Rays these days
You’re right - they’re massively better than spinny bits of plastic in every way. Speed, capacity (1tb tfcard the size of your pinky nail), cost (probably) and longevity. DVD/CD’s don’t last very well in storage.
If it were up to me that’d be fine indeed. But they probably want to retain compatibility with existing setups and unfortunately they will also want some DRM, which Blu-ray provides. A new flash storage (or even just download/file-based) standard should totally be possible, but that’d first require some investment.
Also, there’s some joy in having the plastic spinny thing and putting it into a machine to watch the content. Not having all the content ready at your fingertips and instead putting some throught and effort into getting to the content is what makes stuff like vinyl popular again.
They’ll never come back because studios will never release new movies on them.
Piracy is coming back strong, but I don’t personally see myself going back to burning DVDs instead of buying HDD/SSDs.
I mean, you’re still able to buy the Star Wars shows on Blu-ray, so physical disks for video content might remain just like people but vinyls as a collectors item. DVDs will be for old content only, but there are still so many that they may nevertheless become popular again.
Well with your DVDs the “HD resolution” question is easily answered: you don’t get HD resolution. Weird comparison there. Especially since you complain about Disney+ not going beyond 480p in your specific case - so why buy DVDs with the same shitty resolution?
I’m all for media ownership, but I don’t see the point in buying optical discs (with rather limited lifetime) at 720x480px resolution. Blu rays at least offer HD / UHD, but the plastic / coating will still degrade with time.
I think the way to go is a Homeserver (could even be a raspberry pi) where you can somewhat secure your storage with appropriate redundancy.
Because unlike with Disney+ I’d pay like one euro and I’m able to watch the content forever. But you’re right, it isn’t HD. Blu-ray is tho, with the same benefits
Well with your DVDs the “HD resolution” question is easily answered: you don’t get HD resolution. Weird comparison there. Especially since you complain about Disney+ not going beyond 480p in your specific case - so why buy DVDs with the same shitty resolution?
While I generally agree here, resolution isn’t everything, bitrate also plays a role, and some content in streaming services has been compressed rather badly so that you get artifacts that you don’t have on DVDs. A DVD will certainly look better than 480p streaming content despite a much older codec which light only exists as a reason for an upsell.
I think the way to go is a Homeserver (could even be a raspberry pi) where you can somewhat secure your storage with appropriate redundancy.
And how would you get stuff onto your homeserver legally?
I was with you until:
“And how would you get stuff onto your homeserver legally?”🙊🙉🙈
I mean if you’re going for the piracy route, you never used streaming services or bought physical media anyways and the whole discussion is moot.
Oh no… And don’t presume. Just ask.
Because I DID buy them and used the services.
I just, now, think disney, Spotify…whatever…none of them, deserve a penny more.
So i do my part against these corporations, by not giving them anything.
You do you. Buy the things.
Buy.
Buy.
Buy.
Buy…I think this situation is not so black and white. Before we had the current gazillion streaming services and Netflix had almost all content, most would-be pirates weren’t even thinking about piracy since the service was good enough. In the current situation with atrocious monthly fees and content being split across 10+ streaming services, there probably are quite a few who legally stream what they can get with their subscriptions and pirate the rest.
True, it’s always a combination of resolution and bitrate, though I personally haven’t had the kind of artifacting you are describing. However I also never stream movies etc below 1080p, so I can’t judge how bad the encoding at 480p is on Disney+. In any case, provided the bitrate / encoding is sufficient, you can never reach the level of visual fidelity of higher resolutions with DVDs.
And how would you get stuff onto your homeserver legally?
Buy and rip Blu-rays, in some rare cases you can actually download DRM-free content, depending on your jurisdiction you may also be able to remove DRM protection legally.
Apparently theres a rise in demand for “dumb TVs”, to the point people are paying a premium…no sources, I read it on Lemmy.
I bought one last year and when I need to replace a TV, I will do it again.
No surprise to me. Everything I’ve heard from smart TVs has made me decide that I don’t want one. Expensive telemetry machines. My current TV is basically just a dumb screen and I wouldn’t want it any other way.
I have no idea but hopefully the ‘Proprietary’ branch of human technology is discontinued.
If things continue on the path they’re already on, it will get worse, sadly. At least that’s my opinion. I really hope it dies out.
ha fat chance. unless capitalism collapses in 10 years.
which ha, fat chance.
Windows for home consumers/home PCs hopefully.
I don’t know about DVDs, nearly 2 decades ago I thought optical media was dead and yet somehow it’s still here.
Voting machines
YES, In the USA (United Slaves of America.)
Bluerays will still exist because of japanese laws. How am I supposed to get my anime without dimming if I don’t pirate bluerays?
anime without dimming
So that’s the secret! When I first noticed this happening I thought I was a little bit crazy lol.
I thought disks were dead 10 years ago
Discs**
Disks continue to be the most efficient way to store bonkers amounts of data.
Disks refers to magnetic storage or solid state flash storage.
Discs refers to optical media.
While optical is still king for physical distribution of media to the masses due to its low cost of production, the rise of streaming will certainly be the thing that rips physical ownership from the hands of the people.
Dont stop buying DVDs or Blurays
Sorry for the spelling
Well, I was born in 2000. When I was growing up, DVDs were everywhere. Almost all books that require supplimentary materials would include a DVD with it, we would buy all kinds of games in DVDs. DVD almost gave a feeling of storing the data physically somewhere, like you would include a DVD in a photo album that contains videos, photos were developed and put in albums and so were DVDs because you cannot really develop and watch videos.
DVDs were a part of our culture growing up and as much as I love DVDs, the times are changing and we need to change with it. We need to make peace with the current technology, whatever little it takes from us, it gives 10fold in return. A flash drive takes in that feeling of owning a DVD while providing 10x storage.
I see kids these days prefer sending files over google drive from one device to another near each other because they are too lazy to care about using wires. Funny how technological advancements have changed how people think.
I dont really believe streaming services have much to do with DVDs because people will find a way to download and listen to their favourite songs anyways.
my answer varies quite a bit depending on whether we mean tech that will be relegated to specific niche use cases and markets, tech that will no longer be produced at all, or tech that can’t be found any more, even used.
the first category could include a lot of things, like most of the other suggestions that have already been suggested here, but i don’t think there’s any chance of blu-ray discs or desktop computers being totally gone in that time frame. the second category will probably include small gasoline powered cars, at least in some countries. and the third category will probably include most standard incandescent or CFL light bulbs, but they might still exist in some niche applications.
I imagine incandescent will remain if for no other reason than lava lamps. They’ve got just enough fans and the incandescent is perfect for them. If their manufacture goes away some niche uses company will probably pick them up.
Period focused lighting may also use them. And, now I’m remembering the monthly or so task of having to replace light bulbs back when I was a kid. It feels like a ridiculous old timey thing these days, like milkmen.
Lava lamps actually don’t have any fans, the motion is driven by convection instead! /jk
Social media as we know.
The way shit is headed, probably vaccines.
*in the US
I believe it’s propagating outside of the US
No, we have a vaccine for that.
