The chief of Germany’s foreign intelligence service warned that his agency has “concrete” evidence that Russia is planning an attack on Nato territory.
Bruno Kahl, the outgoing head of Germany’s federal intelligence service (BND), said in a rare interview that Russian leadership no longer believes Nato’s article 5 guarantee of mutual assistance will be honoured — and may seek to test it.
“We are very sure, and we have intelligence evidence to back this up, that [Russia’s full-scale invasion of] Ukraine is only one step on Russia’s path towards the west,” he told a podcast of German outlet Table Briefings.
Kahl qualified that “this doesn’t mean that we expect large tank battalions to roll from the east to the west.”
Kahl said: “We see that Nato is supposed to be tested in its mutual assistance promise. There are people in Moscow who don’t believe that Nato’s article 5 still works.”
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While the war is still confined to Ukrainian territory, the German internal secret service, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), has warned that Moscow is increasingly extending the conflict to western countries through cyberwarfare and espionage.
Russia has in particular taken to deploying so-called low-level agents to commit acts of sabotage, according to the BfV annual report, which was presented in Berlin on Wednesday. They are believed to have been deployed to plant incendiary devices in parcels, which caused a series of fires in European logistics hubs last year.
“We have noticed that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has led to our cyber and espionage defences being increasingly tested,” Sinan Selim, vice-president of the BfV, said.
The drone warfare revolution. They have levelled up technologically and we haven’t. A whole lot of assumptions are out the window. For example, the NATO doctrine has always been that Baltics are “speedbumps”, they slow down the invasion until the cavalry comes and blows the invaders out of the water. But drone warfare has shown wars are no longer manoeuvre wars and it’s much easier to defend territory once captured. Which means that the speedbump doctrine doesn’t work.
Other example: Russia has had to learn to fight with meat wave attacks and masses of cheap drones at scale. We rely on a few highly trained and highly equipped professionals that rely on expensive and complicated supply chains. Our system is technologically superior but much more brittle.
In both those cases, the sheer scale of the US Armed forces can potentially deal with both problems. But without them, these are much less tractable.