Not a betting man but I imagine Iran can disable the ships with drones without even killing soldiers which would escalate.
Which ships?
The military ships if there is a blockade.
I don’t think the military ships are going to be within range. They’ll draw a wide parameter and will use satellites and long range weapons to enforce the blockade.
That’s not how drones work
Can you really surveil a large enough area accurtely enough for it to work?
That’s not how drones work
Oh hey, quick question. Did you know that Iran sells most of its oil to China? Guess what would happen if the Burger Reich tried to interdict Chinese ships. China will simply stop selling essential things to you like they did during the tariff war, and then daddy is going to have to beg Xi for forgiveness again so your economy doesn’t collapse.
I don’t really think escalation is a concern for Iran at this point. It’s pretty clear the US army is at the limit of what it’s able to do here. They can try put boots on the ground next, but that’s going to be a disaster for them. They could ultimately try using nukes, but I’m not sure even the US public would accept that. There are not that many options left. So, it makes perfect sense for Iran to start causing casualties to make this whole thing as costly as possible.
I hope you’re wrong…
